An impressive Aussie line up will contend with the world's best on home turf this weekend on the Sunshine Coast.
On Sunday, the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship heads to Australia for the first time ever, and the start list shows the southern hemisphere's dominance over this race. The Aussies aren't the only ones here, however, as the best at the half distance roll in to fight for the title.
Joe Gambles is the last Australian to podium at the IRONMAN 70.3 worlds, and he's excited about the added "Aussie pride" on the line this weekend. He says with some Tassy flair: "Crikey, it's a rip snorter of an Aussie line up! My number one goal is the be the first Aussie. That's how much pride is on the line." Sebastian Kienle is always motivated to succeed but the rarified air of a third title compels him. "Three people have two, nobody has three," he says.
I certainly don't envy the feeling these guys will have as the pace refuses to "settle" in the first discipline on Sunday. I think we'll have uber swimmer Josh Amberger setting a ridiculous pace in the swim as he looks for a launch pad early in the race. It will be no easy feat to drop the rest of the field, though, as the talent in the water will be impressive. In the end, besides some crushed souls, I see a solo swimmer off the front (Amberger) with one fair sized chase group behind him. In this group, boasting serious horsepower, we'll likely find Terenzo Bozzone, Sam Appleton, Tim Don, Ruedi Wild, Brent McMahon, Andreas Dreitz, Craig Alexander, Tim Reed, and Joe Gambles. The chase will be on from behind, however, as Tyler Butterfield, Trevor Wurtele, Sebastien Kienle, and Lionel Sanders try to limit their losses from the swim. It could be as close as 30-60 seconds for some of these guys, but also could be closer to 2 minutes, it just depends how deep they dig, and how "on" the main group is.
The bike ride will be where the real pain begins. The guys will be going all out to settle the groups and establish a pace where only the strongest will survive. Contrary to popular belief, there is no real "pacing" here early in the front of the race for those trying to establish a lead group. It is really a matter of "keeping up with the Joneses," and in this case, the Joneses are ridiculously fast and are not looking at their power meters.
I think we'll have a few athletes with the strength and the courage to go it alone early though and try to leave the field behind. Amberger and Dreitz are the most likely to have success with this tactic, while the others will have to wait for some steep hills later in the course. The main group out of the swim will likely make up a large group of riders that will be pushed by the likes of Bozzone, Reed, Luke McKenzie, Jake Montgomery, and Gambles. This group won't be the only ones riding fast though, as the freight train of Kienle and Sanders will be coming—pushing the pace and possibly bringing some stragglers from the swim up to the group. It will be a big ask for anyone to hold pace with either of these two though, as they push for the front of the race.
Sanders is pretty straight forward with his tactics: "I will give it everything I've got in all three of the disciplines. This means that the font pack swimmers can't just look around at each other and ride in a pack. If they do, I'll catch them." On the other hand it might be a surprise to hear that Kienle isn't focused on the fastest split of the day, only setting up for the win: "It is not about the bike, I would love to win and I don't care if I post the best bike split on the way."
We'll likely see a small group starting the run together but just behind a few single athletes off the front due to the challenging finish to the bike course. Sanders has shown he's the one to watch at this point of the race if he's near the front as his bike/run combo is one of the best we've ever seen in half-distance racing. He's capable of a 1:10-11 half-marathon on a fast course, it will just depend what he has in the tank after that ride. Sebi clocked the second fastest run last year when this event ventured to Austria—ahead of both short-course star Javier Gomez and Jan Frodeno—and will be looking to use that weapon again this year. "I'm happy with how my running developed this year, after two years with some problems," Kienle says. "Now it is showtime, and I would love to show what I've got."
There might, however, be one more athlete to give these two chase: Tim Reed will start the run in a position to threaten for the win. He has the speed in his legs to keep up, and with the Australian pride on the line I think we'll really see him shine. In the end I think we'll see the three athletes named above take the podium: Kienle, Sanders, and Reed, with Gambles and Bozzone rounding out the top five. Others to look for in the top 10 will be Amberger and Dreitz who will do their best to hang onto their bike gap throughout the run, while Don, and Wild who will run down the house but will be just out of touch coming off of the bike. And we can never discount the great Craig Alexander, who at 43-years-old could still show up and win the whole thing. He's won it twice before and is an athlete never to be underestimated.