Will the defending champ prevail, or will the victory go to someone new?
The attention of the triathlon world will be focused south of the equator next weekend as the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship heads to Australia for the first time. After a successful European hosting of the race in Austria last year it's the Aussies' turn for a little home course advantage as the event heads to beautiful Mooloolaba on the Sunshine Coast.
The women's field here is all that we would expect at a world championship, with huge talent from across the globe lining up to take their shot at the title. Honestly, the amount of 2016 IRONMAN 70.3 champions toeing the line is kinda ridiculous. It's a who's who of champs with the big question of who will be crowned world champ at the day's end. The course should make for tight racing most of the day with the only challenge on the bike coming late in the ride; the four times up "Alex Hill" on the run will give an opportunity for interesting gaps late in the race.
So let's get straight to the business: This race has four athletes who are just a little above the rest of the field, the ones who we'll have our eyes on. Not to discount the quality and depth of the field, I just think these women are the ones going in with the right amount of momentum.
Defending champ Daniela Ryf is coming off an impeccable season that included an IRONMAN World Championship win as well as wins at IRONMAN 70.3 Bahrain, IRONMAN 70.3 Dubai, Challenge Roth, and most recently at IRONMAN Switzerland. She is just simply too good to bet against and has proven she's at a different level. There's simply no weakness from Ryf in all three disciplines—it will just be a matter of her freshness going in from her busy racing schedule.
Melissa Hauschildt has won the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship twice now and just had a dominating performance at the IRONMAN 70.3 European Championship, Wiesbaden. She will come out of the swim with a deficit on the leaders but has a powerful bike and a run that is seldom matched. This will allow her to pull back massive amounts of time late in the race with her dynamic style.
Heather Wurtele has been on a steady rise at the IRONMAN 70.3 worlds the last few years with a second place last year. She's also notched four IRONMAN 70.3 wins this year, including the North American Pro Championship at St. George. Heather is well rounded in her strengths, but it will be a strong bike/run combo that will give her a shot at the top step. She'll be chasing a small gap out of the swim though and may not catch the front until late in the ride. She is one of the few capable of a sub-1:18 run split, so watch out for her there.
The last name on my list may surprise some as she was just 11th at last year's championship, but Holly Lawrence is on a tear and has some serious momentum going into this race with wins at IRONMAN 70.3 Mont Tremblant and the iconic IRONMAN 70.3 Vineman. Lawrence has stepped up her game in all three disciplines and will likely be the top few out of the water. She'll go on to push the pace on the bike from word go, and will be near the front most of the day with Ryf—it's just a matter of how long she'll be able to hold the defending champ's pace.
There will obviously be others vying for the podium and making it a tight and hard fought race from gun to finish line. The following are others to watch, categorized by where I'm expecting them to shine:
Swim: Ellie Salthouse, Lauren Brandon, Alicia Kaye, Annabel Luxford
Bike: Caroline Steffen, Lauren Barnett, Leanda Cave, Ellie Salthouse, Lauren Brandon
Run: Magali, Lindsey Corbin, Rodka Vodikova, Lueren Barnett, Caroline Steffen
There's no doubt it will be a close race regardless of who ends up on top, but my money is with the athlete who paces well early as the hills late in this race will greatly influence the podium. Tune in this weekend to see who ends up on top.
101 Daniela Ryf (SUI)
102 Heather Wurtele (CAN)
104 Magali Tisseyre (CAN)
105 Caroline Steffen (SUI)
106 Annabel Luxford (AUS)
107 Holly Lawrence (GBR)
108 Lauren Barnett (USA)
109 Natascha Schmitt (GER)
110 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS)
111 Leanda Cave (GBR)
112 Radka Vodickova (CZE)
114 Alexandra Tondeur (BEL)
115 Alicia Kaye (USA)
116 Heather Lendway (USA)
117 Ricarda Lisk (GER)
118 Sarah Crowley (AUS)
119 Linsey Corbin (USA)
120 Laura Siddall (GBR)
121 Astrid Stienen (GER)
122 Nikki Bartlett (GBR)
123 Andrea Forrest (AUS)
124 Ellie Salthouse (AUS)
125 Lauren Brandon (USA)
126 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)
127 Laura Philipp (GER)
128 Kirsty Jahn (CAN)
129 Katey Gibb (AUS)
130 Dimity‐Lee Duke (AUS)
132 Caroline Livesey (GBR)
133 Kate Pedley (AUS)
134 Jessica Mitchell (AUS)
137 Renee Baker (AUS)
138 Erika Simon (ARG)
139 Kym Coogan (AUS)