The IRONMAN South American Championship, Brazil, is a runner's race on both sides of the competition.
A country that is crazy about triathlon and a city that has been host to some incredible racing over the years—the IRONMAN South American Championship, Brazil, in Florianopolis is bound to be a tight race across the board with two talented fields racing for automatic Kona spots and a piece of the $150,000 prize purse.
Women's defending champ returns
Last year's racing was dramatic, to say the least, with the women's race having many lead changes up until the very end with an "upset" from Ariane Monticeli (BRA), running a 2:56 marathon to take the win. Monticeli will be back this year looking for a repeat win (and another ticket to Kona), but she'll have to best second-place finisher, Liz Lyles (USA) again to do so. Monticeli had the benefit of "flying under the radar" last year, and this isn't a luxury she'll have going into this year's race. She's going to have a target squarely on her back, and that pressure can be a tough load to carry. Monticeli will have the support of the home town crowd to help her along the way—and yeah—that sub-three-hour marathon should help, too.
The favorites will likely have quite a lead after the swim with Laurel Wassner (USA), and Lucie Zelenkova (CZE), being out of the water with a significant lead. These two will push the pace throughout the early parts of the ride, but will likely find some company during the bike leg. Maureen Hufe (DEU), will have a solid ride on the day and I'm guessing that Lyles will use her as a pace lifter when passed midway through the ride. I think Lyles knows she's going to have some very talented runners starting the run behind her and she'll probably push the pace near the end of that ride to get a bit of a buffer on the chasers.
Lyles is generally an athlete I'd pick for the fastest run of the day, but with Monticeli and the super fleet-footed Cait Snow (USA), running behind, that's a big task for this Sunday. The run will be "full on" from the get-go with athletes chasing hard and others trying their best to hold the gaps. Lyles is most likely to find the front of the race first out of my list of favorites, but she'll be looking over her shoulder once she gets there. Snow has made some big changes this year, including a coaching move to Julie Dibens, and a literal move to Colorado. When asked how the changes have affected her Snow said, "I am in an extremely happy, peaceful place, and enjoying this fresh, new training process." Being in a "good place" is really important in the lead up to an IRONMAN race and I'm betting this rejuvenation will lead to a very fast run time for Snow this weekend.
It's clear that I'm calling this women's race as a runner's race so my podium is a reflection of that. I'm putting Snow on top of a dragged-out late run battle with Lyles and Monticeli. She's just too fast late in a race, and in such a good head space going into this weekend. Lyles will make it tough and a close one pushing to the end as she always does, and third place will go to hometown favorite and defending champ Monticeli.
Expect a tight finish on the men's side
The men's race was almost as close as the women's last year with third place going to Brent McMahon (CAN), finishing just three minutes off of the winner Marino Vanhoenaker (BEL), and one minute behind Tim O'Donell (USA). McMahon is back this year and is looking to move a few spots, but he's going to have some stiff competition in his way. Tim Don (GBR) is the co-favorite coming into this event with an amazing results sheet and an incredible run talent over any distance. Don and McMahon have similar strengths though and it is quite likely we will see them within a few seconds of each other up until the late stages of the run.
Other athletes who will throw a wrench in the plans of the two above are Paul Matthews (AUS), Kevin Collington (USA), Will Clarke (GBR), Daniel Fontana (ITA), and Ronnie Schildknecht (CHE).This race reads like an ITU reunion invitation list, and most of the race will likely see a large group of past short course athletes, swim, bike, and for at least the beginning of the run. Collington showed just a few weeks ago that his prep is on point with a super strong fourth place finish in St. George, and he will be looking to surprise the field in his second attempt at the distance.
Racers that fit outside this ITU group, but are still contenders include Schildknecht, Matthews and Stefan Schmid (DEU). Schmid hit the end of the 2015 season out of the park with a third place finish at IRONMAN Chattanooga (just eight seconds off the win) and his first IRONMAN victory in Cozumel just months later. He'll be looking to use that momentum to find the podium and lock in his Kona ticket for 2016. Schildknecht will be playing catch up after the swim and will have some work to do to catch a fast moving group on the bike. He has some of the most experience in this field though and will pace his race evenly which could bring him near the front mid-way through the run. Matthews, known as "Barney," has that short course speed as well, but may want to get away from the large group on the bike leg if he wants the victory. Barney has been quiet the last few years and has something to prove this weekend, and mostly to his young daughter at home in Boulder: "I need to show Emerson that I'm a pretty good athlete on my day and not the loser that I have been since she's been here!" he said.
In the end, I think the athletes with speed in their running legs will be the ones to rise to the top this weekend, and being able to go sub-eight here will be a must in order to take the title. That eight-hour barrier is still a high mark in this sport and it takes a special athlete to get there. So—considering McMahon has gone under eight twice and within a minute once, I'm gonna call him for the win in a tight race with Tim Don running in second and Paul "Barney" Matthews finishing in third