IRONMAN Live commentator Michael Lovato sheds light on what's shaping up to be a stunning world championship season starter.
For the first time in its history, the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship has come to Europe. The professional field is loaded with international talent. While past race results never guarantee future results, it’s hard to ignore the pedigree—and the sheer number of world titles and Olympic medals—that these athletes bring with them to Zell am See-Kaprun, Austria.
In addition to the high-level competition, the athletes face a few notable challenges on race day, not the least of which is a 12km climb up the Hochkönig. With finishing grades between 14 and 16 percent, this hill will serve as an equalizer, a draft-buster, and a leg softener.
The second challenge, one that was probably unexpected, will be the heat. With forecasts in the upper 80’s (30-32C) for Sunday’s race, attending to the finer points of hydration and fueling will be essential.
In both the men’s and women’s fields, last year’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship top-three finishers have all returned to defend their places on the podium. Betting against those six athletes is risky business.
Fireworks in the women's race
The women’s race should see fireworks early on as 2010 IRONMAN 70.3 world champion, Jodie Swallow of Great Britain, will attempt to distance herself from last year’s champion Daniela Ryf. One of the best race-from-the front athletes, Swallow could exit the lake with up to 90 seconds on her greatest rival. With that lead, I would expect to see Jodie tackle the bike ride with full vigor, knowing that Ryf—one of the sport’s strongest on two wheels—will be chasing hard.
A few athletes can exit the water with Swallow, including Alicia Kaye, Lauren Brandon, and Meredith Kessler. This lead group should stay together for the flatter and faster first 20km. Moreover, it's likely that Kessler will remain with the lead until the top of the Hochkönig, at which point, the extremely technical descent could take her out of contention for the win.
By midway through the challenging bike ride, I expect to see Ryf pedal her way to within seconds of the lead. She should be able to exploit her comfort and strength on Alpine climbs and descents, and will join the lead by the closing 30km of the ride.
The Canadian duo of Magali Tissyere and Heather Wurtele have the strength to keep themselves within close enough contact during the swim and bike that they will be well positioned starting the run. Another contender, fresh off a win at the IRONMAN 70.3 European Championship at Wiesbaden, is Denmark’s Camilla Pedersen.
Leaving T2, I expect to see Ryf and Swallow running together, with Kessler, Wurtele, Kaye and Pedersen all within a couple minutes.
Over the course of the flat, two-loop run, I I expect to see Daniel Ryf distance herself from her rivals, and become the first woman to win back-to-back IRONMAN 70.3 world titles.
Running her way into second place, and reversing last year’s finish order, I see Heather Wurtele closing with the day’s fastest run split. And, closing out the podium, I see Jodie Swallow beginning her turnaround to a fairly lackluster summer season of racing. Fourth place will go to long-distance newcomer, Alicia Kaye, and Camila Pedersen will grab fifth place.
The men are ready for a show
On the men’s side, I predict the hot pace to immediately break the men’s swim pack into two pieces. With one of triathlon’s greatest of all time, Javier Gomez leading the charge (fresh off a win at the ITU WTS Stockholm) Relatively new to long-distance racing, but already owning an IRONMAN 70.3 world title, Gomez comes to Austria as a clear favorite. His closest rivals include last year’s podium finishers Jan Frodeno and Tim Don, each of whom can match the Spaniard’s pace in the water.
Onto the bike, I expect to see Frodeno assert his dominance, using the speed that propelled him to a 4:08 bike split at the IRONMAN European Championship in Frankfurt last month. Knowing that it will take a Herculean effort to upset Gomez, the imposing German will do his best to carry a small lead into T2. With a few athletes having the horsepower to go with Frodeno, including Nils Frommhold from Germany and Sam Appleton from Australia, I expect a breakaway group to tackle the Hochkönig climb and decent aggressively.
Onto the run, it's going to take a run split of 1:10 or better to bring home the title. And only a few athletes on course will have that type of speed left in their legs after the quad-busting bike ride. Among the quickest runners, I expect to see Gomez, Frodeno, Don, Terrenzo Bozzone, Michael Raelert, and possibly Ruedi Wild pull away from the others.
Halfway through the run, my prediction is that Javier Gomez will find another gear, pulling slightly ahead of Frodeno, as they both pull away from the other contenders. As Gomez does what has become quite customary for him, he’ll trot down the finish chute with his seventh world title, and second consecutive IRONMAN 70.3 crown.
In second place—primed and hungry to tackle Kona—Jan Frodeno will secure his second second-place finish in a row. Terrenzo Bozzone will find the will and the speed to overcome the others in the closing miles, notching yet another podium finish at a championship event.
Britain’s Tim Don will take home a hard fought fourth place, and fifth place will go to the talented up-and-comer from Australia, Sam Appleton.